Buying Time

FIVE BY CAPITALSA
WEDNESDAY, 4 NOVEMBER 2026

CapitalSA · Saudi business news, every morning

New here? Five is our daily briefing: the five Saudi business stories that matter, in five minutes.

Not for you? You can unsubscribe at the bottom, and you're always welcome to visit us at TheCapitalSA.com

01 / ECONOMY

Good morning, friends.

Fifteen days. That’s how long it took Aramco’s East-West pipeline to earn back everything it cost to build, its chief executive said yesterday.

But the real number is the other one. The pipeline opened in 1981, built during the Iran-Iraq war on a simple fear: one day, the Strait of Hormuz might close. For more than four decades, it was the Kingdom’s insurance policy against exactly that.

This year, the insurance paid out. Aramco’s output rose 17% from the second quarter, its refineries posted record earnings, and profit beat forecasts, up 41% from a year earlier.

That insurance shows up all over Aramco’s numbers. Profit attributable to shareholders rose to 137 billion Riyal ($36.5 billion), beating forecasts. Adjusted profit, which strips out one-offs, came in at $31.2 billion, ahead of the roughly $30.7 billion analysts expected.

But oil wasn’t the whole story. The war has knocked about five million barrels a day of fuel off global markets, and Aramco runs 51% of its crude through its own refineries. That let it capture record margins: refining earned $10.3 billion, more than triple a year earlier.

AND— about $7 billion came from selling its half of a Malaysian refining complex to Petronas. Strip out the one-offs and the quarter was about 7% weaker than the second, as crude averaged $95 a barrel, down from $108.

Most of that cash is heading to the state. Aramco pays its $21.9 billion base dividend on Nov. 25, about $0.09 a share and up 3.5% from a year earlier. The government and PIF together own almost the whole company.

The state needs every dollar of it. The budget deficit hit $65.1 billion in the first nine months, the finance ministry said on Tuesday. That’s almost the entire forecast for the year, with a quarter still to go. The government spent about $293 billion and took in $229 billion.

Don’t blame the oil price. The deficit is a spending story: war repairs and supply disruptions pushed costs to a record. Oil income did fall 37% from the second quarter as prices eased, but about two-thirds of the gap had already built up in the first half, when oil was dearer.

The goalposts have already moved. Last December’s budget planned for a $44 billion gap. Last month, the ministry raised its forecast to $65.3 billion. Nine months in, it has almost hit that.

Households start chipping in from January. Electricity and water prices rise on Jan. 1. A home using 2,000 kilowatt-hours a month will pay about $112 for power instead of $96, plus a new fixed charge of $19 to $27, and its water bill nearly triples.

Government employees, retirees and families on social security get $133 a month to soften the blow.

Meanwhile, the wealth fund is borrowing too. PIF raised $3 billion in loans from 25 international banks on Tuesday, guaranteed by Italy’s export credit agency SACE. That takes its announced borrowing this year to about $12 billion, after a $2 billion sukuk in January and a record $7 billion bond in May.

Why PIF needs it: the fund used to grow on government handouts, most notably its 16% stake in Aramco. Those transfers have dried up, and smaller Aramco payouts have cut its dividend income. In 2025, it borrowed $26 billion, more than it received in dividends.

There’s a catch. Loans backed by a foreign government usually come cheaper and longer, but the guarantor wants something back. The deal aims “to increase procurement of Italian goods and services,” SACE Chief Executive Officer Michele Pignotti said. PIF signed a similar pact with the US Export-Import Bank in July for up to $15 billion.

The takeaway from the numbers: a record quarter at Aramco no longer covers the state’s bills. The government and its wealth fund are both leaning on debt, and households start paying more in January.

What to watch: the 2027 budget in December, which already pencils in another deficit. Aramco is also expanding the East-West pipeline from seven million to 10 million barrels a day, and gives 2027 spending guidance in March.

Fifteen days of payoff. Forty-five years of patience. That’s what foresight looks like on a balance sheet.

Read more:

02 / FOOD

Saudi Arabia’s dairy giants are racing into meat. NADEC plans to spend about five billion Riyal ($1.3 billion) over five years, much of it on red meat, the company said in a filing on Tuesday. The rest goes into selling more milk and juice and growing higher-value crops in greenhouses through 2031.

It’s following the leader. A week earlier, Almarai, the country’s biggest food company, launched a beef brand called Haboor, backed by about $133 million. Almarai expects the brand to start showing up in its results from the fourth quarter.

There’s room for both. The Kingdom produced only 62% of the red meat it ate in 2024, according to the General Authority for Statistics. The rest came from imports.

NADEC isn’t starting from scratch. Its protein revenue doubled in the third quarter. It runs a slaughterhouse in Haradh with UK meat processor Hilton Foods and now fully owns livestock firm Al Raie. A branded line of packaged red meat is due in major supermarkets by the end of the year.

AND— it isn’t giving up on milk. Last month, NADEC agreed to buy rival Nada’s dairy herd for nearly $100 million, and would then supply Nada with raw milk under a long-term contract. That deal isn’t final yet.

Chief Executive Officer Solaiman Al-Twaijri said the plan is meant to “take NADEC to the next level.”

What’s missing: NADEC didn’t say how it will pay for the plan, how the money splits between businesses, or how much it should add to profit. Investors noticed, and the shares slipped 0.8%.

What to watch: cash, debt or new shares, and how fast NADEC’s packaged meat wins shelf space against Haboor.

03 / TRANSPORT

Riyadh’s metro is heading to Diriyah. A venture led by Parsons, the US engineering firm, with French engineers Systra and Egis, will manage construction of an 8.4-kilometer extension of the Red Line, Construction Week Saudi reported. The Royal Commission for Riyadh City picked the group in March. The contract’s value wasn’t disclosed.

The route: the line runs on from King Saud University to five new stations: KSU Medical City, KSU West, Diriyah East, Diriyah Central and Diriyah South.

Mostly underground. 7.1 kilometers of the extension run below ground and 1.3 kilometers on a viaduct. Three stations are underground and two are elevated, and the line will connect with Line 7.

Who builds it: a group led by Italian contractor Webuild, with Larsen & Toubro, Nesma and Alstom, won the construction contract in January. The job takes about six years, after which the Red Line will stretch about 34 kilometers with 20 stations.

Familiar hands. The Parsons venture has worked on the Riyadh Metro since 2013. The 176-kilometer network opened in late 2024. “We are honoured to continue working on the Riyadh Metro,” said Pierre Santoni, who heads Parsons’ infrastructure business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Why it matters: Diriyah is being rebuilt as a destination for tourists, shoppers and residents. A direct rail link plugs it into the capital’s network, so visitors won’t need a car to get there.

DATA POINT

$12–14 billion

That’s how much extra operating cash Aramco says each additional million barrels a day would bring in over a year. It could reach its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels a day in under three weeks if the government asks, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said on Tuesday’s earnings call.

04 / AVIATION

Three groups are bidding to build Riyadh’s next airport terminal. Offers for Terminal 6 at King Salman International Airport are due on Dec. 30, Construction Week Saudi reported, citing MEED. The terminal alone is built for 40 million passengers a year.

Who’s in: Al-Gihaz Holding with Turkey’s TAV and Italy’s Webuild; Modern Building Leaders with PowerChina and MCC; and UCC Holding with China Communications Construction.

Familiar name. Webuild is also building the metro extension in our last story.

How we got here: the groups were shortlisted in March and finished an early design phase with the developer last month. Enabling works went in July to a venture of China Civil Engineering Construction Corp. and Mofarreh AlHarbi.

The bigger plan: the airport is a $30 billion program built around today’s King Khalid International. It aims to handle 120 million passengers a year by 2030 and 185 million by 2050. Foster + Partners drew up the masterplan, covering about 57 square kilometers with six runways, and Bechtel is the delivery partner.

Why it matters: the PIF-backed developer wants the terminal open before Expo 2030 brings millions of visitors to Riyadh. With the deadline fixed, the clock is already running.

What to watch: who wins, and whether the Expo deadline holds.

05 / EVENTS

Asia’s biggest football tournament is moving to the end of 2027. The Asian Football Confederation pushed the Asian Cup back by almost a year on Tuesday, citing “substantial logistical complexities and travel disruptions.” It now runs from Dec. 23, 2027, to Jan. 21, 2028, subject to FIFA’s approval. Only a week earlier, the AFC had released the full match schedule.

It’s not alone. This autumn, the Future Investment Initiative was postponed days before its 10th edition, Cityscape Global moved to February and the Six Kings Slam tennis exhibition shifted to late December. Riyadh Season is still running.

The silver lining for builders: two of the eight venues are still under construction. King Fahd Sports City Stadium in Riyadh is being rebuilt from the inside out to hold about 70,000 people, and the 47,000-seat Aramco Stadium in Al Khobar has about 11,000 workers on site.

Why it matters: the same venues will host the 2034 World Cup, which makes this tournament the Kingdom’s dress rehearsal. An extra year lowers the risk of opening stadiums that aren’t finished.

The cost of waiting: organisers lined up 40 hotels and 31 training sites so each of the 24 teams could keep one base for the whole tournament. For hotels, caterers and event firms that geared up for January, the payday moves almost a year down the road.

What to watch: FIFA’s sign-off, a new match schedule, and finish dates for the two unfinished stadiums.

AND ONE MORE THING

The Asian Cup’s new start date is Dec. 23, two days before Christmas.

That’s the busiest stretch of the European football calendar, when clubs play every few days. Japan and South Korea in particular field squads packed with players from European leagues, and their clubs will now lose them right in the middle of it.

The Kingdom is offering winter sunshine. European managers may be offering something less friendly.

Five stories. Five minutes.
One step ahead.

You’re reading Five by CapitalSA, the Saudi business stories that matter, explained like a friend would. It lands in your inbox every morning by 7am Riyadh time, free.

Got a news tip, an inquiry or a partnership idea? [email protected]

Forwarded this? Get your own Five.

The news doesn't stop here. Neither do we. See you tomorrow.