Aramco headquarters tower at dusk

Aramco reported third-quarter results on Nov. 3.

Aramco's third-quarter profit beat analysts' forecasts, as high oil prices from the US-Iran war more than made up for lower output.

Adjusted net income, which strips out one-off items, came in at 117 billion Riyal ($31 billion). That's above the roughly 115 billion Riyal consensus compiled by Aramco, and well above the 108 billion Riyal Bloomberg survey.

Net income attributable to shareholders jumped 41% from a year earlier to about 137 billion Riyal, according to Aramco's Tadawul filing. Total net income, which includes minority partners' share, rose 34.5% to about 136 billion Riyal.

One-off boost: most of that jump came from one-off items. Reported profit was about 19 billion Riyal higher than the adjusted figure, mainly because of a gain on selling Aramco's stake in an affiliate, along with tax and zakat adjustments.

Aramco didn't name the affiliate or give the size of the gain in its filing.

Prices, not barrels: revenue rose 20% to about 464 billion Riyal. Higher prices for crude, fuels and chemicals more than offset lower sales volumes.

"Attacks on key energy facilities continued to amplify the global energy supply crisis," Amin Nasser, Aramco's president and chief executive officer, said in a statement.

For the first nine months, net income rose 36% to about 379 billion Riyal.

Past the peak? Underneath, the quarter was weaker than the one before. Reported profit rose 13% from the second quarter, mainly because of the stake sale, but adjusted profit fell about 7% from 125 billion Riyal.

Aramco sold its crude for an average $95.20 a barrel, down from $108.10 in the second quarter but well above $70.10 a year earlier.

Cash back in line: free cash flow rose to nearly 106 billion Riyal, from about 88 billion a year earlier, helped by a 16% cut in capital spending to about 39 billion Riyal.

That covers the 82 billion Riyal base dividend this quarter, after a first-half shortfall of about 49 billion Riyal. The dividend was unchanged from the second quarter at roughly 0.34 Riyal a share, and no performance-linked payout was announced.

On the ground: the Zuluf crude expansion has started producing. Jafurah Phase Two, the Fadhili gas plant expansion and the Dammam field development are on schedule.

Aramco and PIF closed their deal for state AI company HUMAIN on Nov. 1, as reported earlier.

What to watch: the earnings call at 11am Riyadh time should reveal which affiliate Aramco sold and how big the gain was.

It should also show production volumes, gearing and whether the spending cut is a pause or a plan.

With crude prices already off their highs, the next beat depends on oil holding up while Washington and Tehran keep talking about talks.

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