Your Loss, My Gain

For eight months, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cost the Gulf dearly. Exports have been rerouted, insurance has soared and events have been postponed.

But one company's loss is another's gain.

Bahri, Saudi Arabia's national shipper, just reported a ninefold jump in quarterly profit as supertanker rates hit records. Petro Rabigh, Aramco's Red Sea refinery, swung back to a big profit, selling fuel into a market starved of Gulf supply.

Others are making their own luck. ADES is chasing rig work from Angola to Indonesia as drilling slows at home. Investcorp is buying into a Saudi company while most foreign money waits on the sidelines.

Investors noticed. Saudi stocks closed back above 10,000 points on Wednesday, three sessions after a five-year low.

Who else is quietly winning from the war?

Saudi Arabia's national shipping company is heading for a bumper year, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sends the cost of hiring a supertanker to record highs.

Bahri's net profit rose almost tenfold to SR5.08 billion ($1.35 billion) in the third quarter, from SR513 million a year earlier, it said on Wednesday. Revenue rose sixfold to SR14.8 billion.

Your loss, my gain: With the strait closed, few tankers can load in the Gulf, and those that can name their price. Hiring a supertanker from the Gulf to Asia cost about $1.3 million a day in early October, around 43 times the January rate. Bahri owns about 50 of them.

Three months beat six: Third-quarter profit alone topped the first half's combined SR4.9 billion. Nine-month profit is now close to SR10 billion.

Reinvesting the windfall: Last week Bahri ordered three supertankers worth SR1.69 billion from a Saudi shipyard, for delivery in 2029 and 2030.

The catch: The windfall rides on the crisis, and rates have already eased from their peak. The shares jumped as much as 9.3% on Wednesday before closing up 1.9% at SR36.08.

Aramco's Red Sea refining venture swung to a big quarterly profit, as the Hormuz closure starves the world of fuel.

Petro Rabigh made SR2.58 billion ($686 million) in the third quarter, against a loss of SR1.24 billion a year earlier, it said on Wednesday. Revenue rose 83% to SR16.8 billion.

Location, location: Refineries inside the Gulf can't ship their fuel out. Rabigh sits on the Red Sea, outside the strait, so it is selling into a short market at higher prices while running its plants harder.

The turnaround: Petro Rabigh lost money for years. A year ago, Aramco raised its stake to 60% at SR7 a share, and the partners injected $1.4 billion of fresh capital. The shares now trade above SR16, more than double what Aramco paid.

The catch: Profit slipped 3% from the second quarter, a hint that margins may have peaked. The shares closed down 1.3% on Wednesday.

A Saudi-listed oil driller is leaning harder on foreign oilfields, as the regional war slows offshore work at home.

ADES Holding said an international oil major has extended its contract for a rig in Angola by a year, adding about SR195 million ($52 million) of work from early 2027.

Two deals, two days: A day earlier, ADES won a SR173 million contract in Indonesia with a new customer, Pertamina Hulu Mahakam.

Why now? The conflict forced ADES to suspend some offshore rigs in Saudi waters, and its Saudi revenue fell 11.7% in the first half. Abroad, the work keeps coming: about 65% of revenue now comes from outside the kingdom.

The bigger picture: Buying Shelf Drilling turned ADES into a global player, with 101 rigs working and SR34.7 billion of contracted work. Mexico is next.

Investors liked it. The shares jumped 6.9% on Wednesday to SR17.50.

One of the Gulf's biggest private equity firms is buying into a Saudi company in the middle of a regional war.

Investcorp will take a large minority stake in REDA Gulf Holding, a fire-safety equipment maker whose clients include Aramco and SABIC, through its $500 million fund for Saudi companies preparing to list. It joins AlTouq Group and Thara Future Investments. Terms were not disclosed.

Why the timing matters: It is one of the first foreign deals into the kingdom since attacks escalated and the Future Investment Initiative was postponed to 2027.

Bargain hunting? No price was given. But with foreign money on the sidelines and Saudi stocks only just off five-year lows, buyers hold the upper hand. Buying before a listing lets the fund ride any recovery.

The bigger picture: REDA is the fifth bet for Investcorp's Saudi pre-IPO fund, after Metra, NourNet, TruKKer and Salla.

Saudi Arabia's biggest dairy company is finally putting a name and real money behind its long-promised move into red meat.

Almarai will spend about SR500 million ($133 million) launching Haboor, a locally produced beef brand. It first flagged red meat in 2021 with SR250 million. Now it has a brand and twice the budget.

Beyond milk: Haboor adds to a SR1.04 billion bottled-water deal and a salmon processing plant in King Abdullah Economic City.

The rivals: Nadec is buying Nada's dairy herd and will supply it with raw milk, so the competition is consolidating while Almarai keeps expanding.

What's next: Almarai expects Haboor to show up in its results from the fourth quarter of 2026.

THE FED: The US Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, after raising them in September for the first time since 2023. With the riyal pegged to the dollar, Saudi Arabia's central bank usually moves in step, so borrowing costs for Saudi companies and households stay put for now.

TEHRAN TALKS: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have agreed to keep talking with Iran, but attacks continue. Egypt's parliament has approved sending troops to Saudi Arabia for defensive duties, and the Houthis called it a declaration of war.

HORMUZ: The strait remains closed to commercial shipping. Aramco is rerouting crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and plans to lift its capacity from 7 million to 10 million barrels a day.

SAUDI STOCKS: TASI closed at 10,008 points on Wednesday, up 0.2%. The test now is whether it can hold above 10,000.

ARAMCO EARNINGS: Aramco reports third-quarter results on November 3. Watch export volumes, shipping costs and the dividend.

The Saudi riyal has been pegged at 3.75 to the dollar since 1986. That's 40 years this year, older than most of the people trading it.

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