Business as Unusual

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November begins with a question: what is your backup plan?

For Saudi oil exporters, it is a second coast. For Riyadh’s entertainment business, a home crowd. For Acwa, a partner to share the cost of entering America’s power market.

Those options matter when trade routes are disrupted, visitors cancel and the bill keeps rising. They also explain why a warehouse investor is looking beyond today’s congestion to the space businesses may need for years.

Then there is Binance. A platform built to move money around the clock has had to stop withdrawals after a $6.3 billion theft. Its promise to cover the losses is substantial. For users waiting to regain access, the test is whether that promise translates into money they can move.

That is the thread through today’s Five: who has something to fall back on, and how well it holds up.

Watch today's Five in under a minute

1. Binance: Trust, on Hold

Binance says it will absorb the losses from the $6.3 billion theft from its platform. For customers, the next question is when they can withdraw again.

The exchange says it has set aside more than $6.34 billion, including $5 billion already held in the affected cryptocurrencies. About $3 billion in stolen assets has been frozen on-chain. Those freezes are a recovery effort, separate from the company’s commitment to cover losses.

What changed: Binance’s latest update targets a phased withdrawal restart, subject to security checks, and a reserves report by Monday, 2 November. Neither should be mistaken for a completed recovery.

The Saudi angle: Abu Dhabi’s financial regulator says it is engaging closely with Binance. For Saudi users, the episode puts the spotlight on where oversight sits when their money is held on an overseas platform.

2. Aramco: The Other Coast

Saudi Arabia’s export figures show the value of having another route to market. Crude shipments averaged 6.5 million barrels a day so far in October, according to Vortexa, close to its September estimate of 6.6 million.

Red Sea shipments rose to 2.5 million barrels a day, while Gulf loadings slipped to four million. The East-West pipeline feeding Yanbu has resumed after last month’s attack.

Why it matters: Alternative infrastructure is helping Saudi Arabia keep selling through disruption. That makes Yanbu and the pipeline strategic assets whose value becomes particularly clear when the usual route is under pressure.

Read the numbers carefully: Trackers differ sharply: TankerTrackers puts October near seven million barrels a day; Kpler estimates 5.4 million. The precise total remains uncertain, even as the importance of the two-coast strategy is clear.

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3. ESR: Room for More

ESR and Al Muhaidib Group are looking beyond the immediate scramble for warehouse space. Their $5 billion Saudi logistics venture plans to build and buy sites in Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam, starting operations in early 2027.

Occupancy across the three cities exceeds 90%, while top-grade warehouses account for less than a tenth of existing stock. Tenants are signing leases of five years or more to secure space.

The bigger bet: Disrupted shipping has intensified demand, but the shortage of modern facilities gives the venture a longer-term opportunity. Whether today’s cargo flows persist is only part of the investment case.

What to watch: Where the first sites land, when they open and whether tenants commit before completion. A reopening of Hormuz could redistribute cargo just as new capacity arrives. Roshn and DP World are also building.

4. Riyadh Season: A Different Crowd

Fadel Chaker’s first night sold out in under an hour. That is one picture of Riyadh Season this year. Disrupted flights and weak hotel occupancy offer another.

The festival opened on schedule, with residents and Saudi visitors continuing to turn out. International travel is a harder sell: Riyadh’s airport has only partly reopened, and Cathay Pacific has suspended the route through January.

Follow the spending: A local family can fill an arena without buying an international flight or booking a hotel. Strong ticket demand can therefore coexist with pressure on the wider tourism economy. A busy venue is encouraging; it does not measure the whole visitor business.

Several other major events have been cancelled or moved. Next on the calendar is WWE Crown Jewel on 7 November, with reports of a possible US backup venue worth monitoring.

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5. Acwa: Power Moves West

Acwa is following the demand for electricity into America. The Saudi developer and investment firm EIG have formed Plenum Power, launching with about $4 billion in equity, to buy and build US power plants, renewables and battery storage.

AI data centres are helping lift demand after years of relatively flat growth. For Acwa, a company built around power and water projects at home and in emerging markets, that opens a different kind of expansion.

Sharing the bill: The $4 billion belongs to the venture as a whole. It is not Acwa’s contribution alone, and the partners have not disclosed their respective commitments.

The next test: No acquisitions have been announced. The first deals will show which technologies, locations and returns the partners are pursuing. For now, the vehicle is in place; the portfolio is still to come.

Sunday, 1 November: Oil supply. Eight OPEC+ countries are due to meet. Watch the December production decision and how it accounts for disrupted export routes.

Monday, 2 November: Trust. Binance plans to publish its updated reserves report. Watch whether withdrawal access resumes as promised, as well as what the numbers show.

Tuesday, 3 November: Earnings. Aramco reports third-quarter results. Watch cash flow, the dividend and management’s account of operating through disruption.

Riyadh crowned a familiar champion last night: Canelo Álvarez beat Christian Mbilli by unanimous decision to win back the WBC super middleweight title.

Riyadh’s Times Square replica has reindeer-themed carriages.

New York lights. North Pole transport. Riyadh weather.

Business as unusual.

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